Phil Reisman: Cuomo can take aim at Astorino
Will Rob Astorino run for governor again four years from now?
His supporters hope so. But first he has to get past 2017 when he faces re-election for Westchester County executive.
Astorino pulled off two impressive election victories in Westchester in 2009 and 2013, despite being a Republican in a county where Democrats outnumber GOP voters 2-1. But next time will not be as easy — and being politically astute, Astorino knows he can't take anything for granted.
The Democrats will be loaded with cash. Remember the $45 million in campaign donations Gov. Andrew Cuomo raised? Well, he didn't spend all of it.
Cuomo has a long memory, and he is unlikely to forget that Rob called him a crook and a lot of other things in the gubernatorial race. It's more than conceivable he will give a healthy chunk of his leftover money to the Westchester Democratic Party Committee in support of anti-Astorino initiatives, including test polling possible opponents. (I'll get to those potential opponents in a minute.)
As soon as Democrats land someone they think can defeat Astorino, the Cuomo team could back the candidate with even more money, funneled through political action committees and local contributors. The theory is that the money supposedly won't be directly traceable to the governor. Mike Edelman, a longtime political analyst, said in an email that Cuomo won't want to appear vengeful, adding, "LOL, but of course we know he is."
After that, watch out. The Democrats will roll out attack ads — many of them reprising his socially conservative positions on guns, abortion and gay marriage. He had better settle the impasse over low-income housing with the Department of Housing and Urban Development because they'll likely bring that up, too.
Though Astorino carried 46 of New York's counties against Cuomo, his opponents can say that of the counties he didn't carry, the most important one was Westchester, where he received 42 percent of the vote to Cuomo's 55 percent. They might say, snarkily, that he is more qualified to be county executive of upstate Chemung or Herkimer.
Raising money for the 2017 campaign could be a challenge. But Astorino will have three years to do it. However, from the start donors may question him as to what job is he ultimately aiming at — county executive or governor. Astorino ran for governor immediately after winning the 2013 county executive's race — and got away with it. Westchester voters may not tolerate it next time.
Look for the Democratic candidate to hound him on this issue. You can practically hear the ad now: "Rob Astorino fooled us once. Shame on him. If he fools us again, shame on us."
Of course, three years is a lifetime in politics. Since Astorino's intentions are unknown, all of this is speculation. He could choose not to run for re-election, take a year off and then run for governor.
In any event, a slew of Democrats would be happy to take his place. Here are some possibilities:
Mike Spano: The Yonkers mayor is up for re-election next year. After that, he's term limited. His brother is the powerful lobbyist Nick Spano, who has close ties with Cuomo's right-hand man, Larry "The Brain" Schwartz.
Mike Kaplowitz: The chairman of the Westchester County Board of Legislators from Somers is a moderate in the Cuomo mold. A political insider told me the governor asked Kaplowitz to run for state Senate this year but he declined.
Catherine Borgia: She's the county board's majority leader and a former Ossining supervisor. She was a vocal critic of Astorino in the gubernatorial campaign.
Ken Jenkins: He wanted the nomination in 2013 but agreed not to primary against the party's nominee, Noam Bramson. The Yonkers legislator is unlikely to be so accommodating next time. His website, Jenkins for Westchester, leaves no doubt as to his intention.
Tim Idoni: His name comes up every four years but 2017 might finally be the year the county clerk and former New Rochelle mayor makes a run for county exec.
George Latimer: The state senator from Rye just won his second term, albeit by a closer margin than his first victory two years ago. He's up for re-election again in 2016.
Amy Paulin: Similar to Idoni, the hardworking assemblywoman from Scarsdale wisely decided not to challenge Astorino last time. She might have a change of heart in three years.
Sean Coffey: There are a few dark horses, and Coffey, who lives in Bronxville, is one of them. In 2009, he ran for the party nomination for attorney general but lost to Eric Schneiderman. It's been rumored Cuomo wanted him to run against Astorino in 2013 but he supposedly resisted the temptation.