Can Joseph Morelle defy 100 years of history?

ALBANY – Can incoming interim Assembly Speaker Joseph Morelle overcome history and become the first upstate Democratic speaker in more than a century?

Morelle, D-Irondequoit, Monroe County, is expected to be named interim speaker on Monday when the Assembly officially ousts embattled Speaker Sheldon Silver, who was charged last Thursday with a $4 million kickback scheme.

The Assembly plans to elect its permanent speaker on Feb. 10, and Morelle and Bronx Assemblyman Carl Heastie are considered the two top candidates. Other candidates are also emerging, including Manhattan Assemblyman Keith Wright and Queens Assemblywoman Cathy Nolan.

Morelle would have the benefit of being in the position, at least for the short term, and he has guided the 106-member Democratic conference during its tumultuous week after Silver's arrest. Also, he could benefit from the potential of a split vote from the city members.

But he will look to do something that no Democrat outside New York City has done since 1911: become Assembly speaker. The last upstate Democratic speaker was Daniel Frisbie from Schoharie County near Albany.

Since then, there has been six Republican speakers from upstate — the last being Schenectady's Oswald Heck, whom Silver was ironically one-year shy of surpassing as the state's longest-serving speaker.

With 63 members of the Assembly conference from New York City, Morelle faces a geographical disadvantage that will be hard to overcome, and some city leaders are pressing the importance of keeping the powerful post in the city.

"My view is look at the history: For decades and decades there's been a speaker from New York City, and that's been one of the reasons why some of New York City's needs have been protected," New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday.

The last time a Democratic member had a shot at speaker was James Tallon from Binghamton, who, like Morelle, briefly served as speaker after the resignation of Mel Miller in scandal in 1991.

But Tallon's bid quickly fizzled, and the conference coalesced around Saul Weprin of Queens. Tallon, though, dismissed that it was a geographical split: He said he and Weprin had support all around the state.

He said it's possible for the Assembly to elect an upstate member.

"It's a changing environment." Tallon said Wednesday. "I think ultimately it's going to be a conversation among individual members of the Legislature as they make important choices about their personal future and about the institution's future."

Gerald Benjamin, a political science professor at SUNY New Paltz, said for Morelle or any other upstate candidate to be elected speaker, it can't be about geography. If it's based on geography, Morelle would lose. He said picking a minority candidate, or perhaps a woman, will also be important to some members.

In addition to the 63 New York City members, there are 25 Assembly Democrats from upstate and 18 from the suburbs.

"Once the geographic definition prevails, the city wins," Benjamin said. "It needs to be ideology. It needs to be effectiveness. It needs to be a capacity to represent the broader interest. And he's been wrapped as being insufficiently liberal and allegedly too close to the governor."

Indeed, some Democrats have privately questions Morelle's record as a moderate Democrat: He's backed tort reform and business-tax cuts, and he's the sponsor of a bill to legalize mixed-martial-arts contests in New York — something some New York City members oppose. His business ties could also irk some powerful city unions.

He's also close with Cuomo, having been one of few leading Democrats in 2002 to back Cuomo for governor, a bid Cuomo lost embarrassingly. Morelle started his political career as a county legislator and was elected to the Assembly in 1990; he served from 2005 through last year as the county party's chairman.

But the other candidates also have ties with various groups. Heastie is the chairman of the Bronx Democratic committee, while Wright was tapped in 2011 as state Democratic committee chairman by Cuomo. Nolan has been a vocal supporter of the teachers' union.

Miller said Wednesday that the Democratic Party in New York has become more diverse and spread throughout the state compared to decades ago when it was largely a New York City party. With Democratic majorities in most upstate cities and through the city's suburbs, it would be foolish to consider geography as the major factor in picking a speaker, Miller said.

"I think maturity tells us you go for who you believe if going to be the best speaker -- and you don't worry about geography," Miller said.

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